Even PvP is pretty bearable now, whereas I don’t even want to begin to express how upsetting it was to be Prot Warrior when BFA initially released. They always had solid AoE DPS, so as long as their defensive capabilities remain decent and their DPS doesn’t get absolutely hammered by tweaks then they’ll be a pretty safe pick for a quite a while. No doubt it’ll be down-tweaked eventually. Prot Warrior is in a solid place, which is good considering the amount of initial BFA time spent being crippled by the GCD-IPain issue before. I play Prot War & Prot Paladin primarily, though haven’t been a key pusher since Legion so I can only talk from a relatively casual perspective right now. Nerfs and buffs always lurk around the corner. I’m just not sure if jumping on the FOTM bandwagon leads to much satisfaction in the long term. If damage is your biggest concern, warrior is what you should go for. Not a fan of healing BDKs because they are spiky, but they are certainly the most popular tank at around +15.
From my current perspective as healer, I prefer paladin tanks, because they are very smooth to heal, with warriors being second. They also have their shout which is another benefit in the melee-heavy meta right now. It’s almost like having another dps in the group, especially when it comes to trash (and trash matters in M+). The probably most sought after tank is protection warrior right now, in large part because of the obscene damage it does. So if you mostly plan to PUG, yeah, neither Guardian nor VDH are good picks right now, sadly. It’s just not as easy as with a warrior, and the community perception is really poor also. It is true that bears are not FOTM right now and that they lack in various ways (defensives, damage), but they will likely get fixed at some points, and you can certainly do +15s as a bear just fine too, even now. There is a Guardian tank that has done +23 this season, and there are Twitch streamers like NihiloTheBear that do show that you can do higher keys (18 and up) even if you are not running with super meta groups.
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